Geopolitics in Motion

For the month as a whole, the U.S. S&P 500 rose by 0,1 percent measured in USD, the European Stoxx 600 ended up 2,8 percent measured in EUR, and the Nordic VINX advanced 5,0 percent measured in NOK. Domestically, Oslo Børs rose by 4,9 percent (OSEBX).

Tax Cuts and Growth Impulses in the U.S.

The U.S. economy shows signs of moderation but continues to maintain a solid pace. Growth has slowed somewhat compared with last year, but is now supported by new tax cuts for both households and businesses. These measures provide a clear boost to activity into 2026 and at the same time mitigate the impact of higher tariffs and weaker purchasing power. Inflation expectations have continued to decline, creating room for a more supportive monetary policy. Overall, this contributes to a more predictable backdrop for markets, even as the pace of growth normalizes.

Geopolitics with New Contours

The year began with notable geopolitical events, particularly in Latin America. Developments in Venezuela triggered limited immediate market reactions, but signal a clearer geopolitical shift. U.S. foreign policy appears more direct, with increased emphasis on national security and regional control. References to the Monroe Doctrine underscore a desire for stronger influence in the immediate sphere of interest. This creates greater uncertainty around international rules of engagement, but also clearer priorities.

Global Growth Holds Up

Despite political noise and regional differences, global growth remains relatively resilient. Europe has shown signs of improvement, while several emerging economies have delivered stronger-than-expected performance. China has stabilized growth through policy measures and trade reorientation, contributing positively to the overall picture. At the same time, rate cuts and lower inflation pressure in several economies point to improved financial conditions. Markets continue to be supported by solid corporate earnings and investment appetite.

The Road Ahead

The start of the new year is characterized by a more balanced macroeconomic picture than previously feared. Lower inflation, gradual rate cuts, and fiscal impulses provide improved conditions for economic activity and corporate earnings. Geopolitics and trade may still generate periods of volatility, but have a limited impact on long-term growth drivers. Both developed and emerging economies show signs of more stable growth. With more supportive monetary policy and continued solid earnings expectations, conditions are in place for further value creation. This provides a continued attractive backdrop for equities as the year unfolds.