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New, higher interest rate peak

The world’s stock markets fell slightly due to the likelihood of a new, higher interest rate peak. This has proven to be the drawback to the heightened optimism and waning fears of recession.

Has inflation peaked?

The consensus is that we can expect a «soft landing» in 2023 and that inflation will peak. The central banks have therefore signalled a slower pace of interest-rate hikes.

Tighter central bank monetary policy

In the second half of August, the markets fell back to their end of July levels. This was apparently driven by the signals from the annual Jackson Hole symposium, where the chair of the US central bank was clear about combating inflation.

The stock exchanges defied weaker macro figures

Globally, the long-term interest rates responded to weaker growth impulses and fell sharply in July. The stock markets, on the other hand, jumped up, quite clearly driven by interest-rate-sensitive growth shares.

The central banks’ dilemma

Fears of a recession are increasing as a result of rising inflation and interest rates. Inflation has remained high, driven by an extremely strong labour market, high commodity prices and delays in global supply chains following the pandemic. The war in Ukraine and China’s handling of Covid-19 have further worsened the supply problems.

Lower growth outlook

Increasingly hawkish central banks and consumption hit by higher energy and food prices have led to the fear of recession rising significantly. At the same time, economic growth is higher than the trend growth and the labour market is strong.

The fear of inflation has returned

The financial markets are again focusing on their fears of high inflation and restrictive monetary policy measures. This is despite the unlikelihood of peace negotiations relating to the war in Ukraine.

The stock markets recouped their losses

Despite more than a month of war in Europe, most financial markets have stabilised. At the same time, the yield curve has inverted, which in the past has been an indicator of a recession.

Russia has invaded Ukraine

After Putin’s constant warmongering over a lengthy period, Russia chose to invade its neighbouring country Ukraine on 24 February. Apart from the tragic human consequences, the war has affected the market too.

The Storebrand Group excludes Russian companies

Due to the escalating situation in Ukraine, Storebrand has decided to freeze all Russian investments and divest from Russia. The Delphi Funds have not had exposure in Russian companies.