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The stock exchanges defied weaker macro figures

Globally, the long-term interest rates responded to weaker growth impulses and fell sharply in July. The stock markets, on the other hand, jumped up, quite clearly driven by interest-rate-sensitive growth shares.

The central banks’ dilemma

Fears of a recession are increasing as a result of rising inflation and interest rates. Inflation has remained high, driven by an extremely strong labour market, high commodity prices and delays in global supply chains following the pandemic. The war in Ukraine and China’s handling of Covid-19 have further worsened the supply problems.

Lower growth outlook

Increasingly hawkish central banks and consumption hit by higher energy and food prices have led to the fear of recession rising significantly. At the same time, economic growth is higher than the trend growth and the labour market is strong.

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